ADSU International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Management
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description: ADSU International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Management Overview The ADSU International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Management is a premier scholarly publication of the Department of Economics, Adamawa State University, Mubi, that disseminates advanced research and knowledge in the fields of applied economics, finance, and management. The journal caters to a global audience of academicians, researchers, and professionals, aiming to bridge the gap between theory and practice in these interrelated disciplines in order to facilitate economic development. History The journal was initially established in 2016 under the title ADSU Journal of Economics and Interrelated Disciplines. It was founded with the mission to explore and address the diverse aspects of economics and its related fields. Recognizing the evolving scope and the interdisciplinary nature of modern economic studies, the journal rebranded to ADSU Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Management. This change reflected a more focused commitment to the practical applications of economic theories, financial management practices, and managerial strategies. In its continuous evolution and pursuit of academic excellence, the journal has now attained significant international visibility and prestige, leading to its current title, ADSU International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Management. This rebranding marks its established status in the global academic community and its commitment to fostering international collaboration and dissemination of high-impact research. Scope and Aims The ADSU International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Management aims to publish original, high-quality research articles, review papers, and case studies. The journal welcomes contributions that offer innovative insights, empirical findings, and theoretical advancements in areas including, but not limited to: Applied Economics: consumer behaviour, production theory, market structur…
language: en
publication name: ADSU International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Management
items: Challenges Of Cattle Marketing During Cash Crunch Period In North-East Nigeria
items: Health Infrastructure Development And Life Expectancy At Birth In Anglophone West African Countries
items: Impact Of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) On Nigeria's Public Debt Stock
items: Effect Of Innovativeness And Proactiveness On The Performance Of Micro-Enterprises In Nasarawa State
items: Moderating Effect Of Audit Committee Independence On The Relationship Between Audit Quality And Earnings Management Of Listed Non-Financial Firms In Nigeria
items: Investigating The Activities Of Phone Snatchers (Shila Boys) In Yola North Local Government: An Assessment Of Government Intervention
items: Impact Of Oil Rents On Non-Resource Tax Revenue: The Moderating Role Of Economic Institutions In Selected Ecowas Member Countries
items: Globalization And The Challenges Of Economic Diplomacy In Africa
items: Trade Openness, Foreign Direct Investment And Economic Growth In United Kingdom (UK): A Time Series Analysis Approach
items: Oil Price, Exchange Rate Volatility, And Inflation Dynamics In Nigeria: An ARCH/GARCH Modelling Approach
items: Monetary Policy And Income Inequality In Nigeria: New Insights From ARDL Modelling
items: Impact Of Household Consumption Expenditure On Private Investment In Nigeria
items: Impact Of Government Expenditure On Economic Growth In Nigeria
items: Effect Of Fadama's Agricultural Credit And Farm Inputs Provision On Poverty Reduction Of Beneficiary Households In Benue State
items: Enhancing Employee Performance Through Continuing Education And Workshops In Adamawa State Civil Service Commission, Yola
items: Under-Five Mortality And Economic Performance In Selected Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence From A Panel Data Analysis
items: Moderating Effect Of Institutional Quality On The Relationship Between Foreign Direct Investment, Trade Openness, Economic Growth And Development In West Africa
items: Linear And Non-Linear Impact Of Interest Rate On Sustainable Energy Consumption In Nigeria
items: Economic Growth And Environmental Sustainability In Africa
items: A Sectorial Analysis Of Tax Revenue And Economic Growth In Nigeria
items: Impact Of Indirect Tax On The Nigerian Economic Growth
items: Interaction Effects Of Monetary And Exchange Rate Policies On Oil And Non-Oil Trade Balance In Nigeria
items: Manufacturing Sector Output And Economic Performance In West Africa: Panel Analysis
items: Health Expenditure And Maternal Mortality Rate In Sub-Sahara Africa
items: Economic Dimensions Of Post-Harvest Losses And Household Food Security Among Cowpea Farmers: Evidence From Taraba State, Nigeria
items: Digitalising Local Government Procurement Units: Panacea For Effective Public Finance Management
items: Assessment Of The Effect Of Economic Growth On Environmental Pollution In West Africa
items: Driving Economic Growth Through Macroeconomic Indicators: Evidence From Nigeria
items: Effects Of Basic Health Care Provision Fund Health Insurance On Healthcare Access And Utilization In Adamawa State: Evidence From Structural Equation And Thomas & Penchansky Models
items: Estimating The Time-Variant Co-Movement Of Exchange Rate Volatility And Consumer Price Returns In Nigeria

Challenges Of Cattle Marketing During Cash Crunch Period In North-East Nigeria
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description: This study was conducted to examine the Challenges of Cattle Marketing during Cash Crunch Period in North-East Nigeria. Purposive and simple random sampling methods were used to select 495 respondents which form the sample size. A cross sectional survey was carried out with the aid of well-structured questionnaire along with interviews to obtained Primary data for the study. Kendall’s coefficient of concordance was used to identify challenges faced by the cattle marketers. Inadequate cash in circulation as well as poor network (Ā =6.32 and Ā =6.33 respectively) was ranked as the major challenges while lack of government support (Ā =6.63) as a minor challenge. The Kendall's W value of 0.891 indicates a high degree of agreement among the respondents regarding the perceived severity of the various challenges they face. The results shows that cashless policy have seriously affected Cattle marketing and the economy of the marketers in North-East Nigeria. This study therefore, recommend that private and public financial institutions, should provide effective E- marketing, sufficient cash in circulation and also establish platforms for knowledge exchange to address the complex challenges faced by cattle marketers, particularly during challenging periods like the liquidity crisis period.
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creator: Usman, K.
creator: Aliyu, A.
creator: Moses, J. D.
creator: Gabul, P.
creator: Usman, J.
creator: Fatima, B. A.
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 ADSU International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Management
date: 2026-07-07
publication date: 2026-07-07

Health Infrastructure Development And Life Expectancy At Birth In Anglophone West African Countries
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description: This study examines the relationship between health infrastructure and Life expectancy in Anglophone West African countries, namely Nigeria, Ghana, Gambia, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, using panel data from 2000-2025. The study employed the Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to investigate both the long-run and short-run dynamics among the variables. The long-run results revealed that immunization coverage, birth attended by skill health staff as well as specialist surgical workforce have positive and statistically significant effects on life expectancy, indicating that improvement in these aspects of health infrastructure contributes to better health outcomes in the region. Conversely, basic health services and health spending per capita exhibit negative and significant relationships with life expectancy, while hospital bed density shows a negative but significant effect. The short run estimate indicates weak and statistically significant relationship between most health infrastructure variables and life expectancy, suggesting that the impact of health infrastructure on life expectancy is more pronounced in the long-run than in the short run. Country-specific results revealed that heterogeneous effects across Nigeria, Ghana, Gambia, Liberia, and Sierra Leone reflecting differences in national health systems and institutional capacity. The study concludes that strengthening health infrastructure, particularly through increased immunization coverage, and expansion of the specialist health workforce is essential for improving health outcomes in Anglophone West Africa. The study recommended policy efforts should be focused on efficient allocation of health resources and sustainable investment in health infrastructure to enhance life expectancy and reduce under five mortality rate, basic health services, Hospital Beds.
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creator: Willie Wilfred Okoi
creator: Valentine Dan Oku
creator: Ikpi Inyang Ikpi
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 ADSU International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Management
date: 2026-07-02
publication date: 2026-07-02
starting page: 480
ending page: 496

Impact Of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) On Nigeria's Public Debt Stock
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description: The rising public debt stock in Nigeria, amid declining foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, raises growing concerns about fiscal sustainability and the macroeconomic implications of capital movements in a commodity-dependent economy. This study examines the impact of FDI on Nigeria's public debt stock from 1981 to 2024, while accounting for the mediating roles of exchange rate, interest rate, and GDP growth. The study is anchored on Dunning's OLI Framework and the Absorptive Capacity Framework, providing an integrated theoretical lens for interpreting the fiscal implications of foreign capital in the Nigerian context. Using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Johansen cointegration test, and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the study establishes both short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium relationships. Results show that FDI significantly reduces public debt in the long run (β = −0.7427, t = −5.194), exchange rate depreciation significantly amplifies debt accumulation (β = 1.746, t = 7.345), and GDP growth exerts a stabilizing debt-reducing effect (β = −1.117, t = −2.403). Interest rates are largely insignificant in the long run but exert meaningful short-run pressure. The error correction term (−0.1344) confirms stable equilibrium convergence at 13.4% annually. The study concludes that FDI can reduce Nigeria's debt burden when accompanied by exchange rate stability and broad-based economic growth. Policy recommendations include attracting diversified and productive FDI, stabilizing the naira, pursuing growth-enhancing structural reforms, and coordinating fiscal and monetary policies.
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creator: Ojonoka Maji IBRAHIM
creator: Dominic IORTYER
creator: Aluko OLAWALE
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 ADSU International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Management
date: 2026-07-02
publication date: 2026-07-02
starting page: 451
ending page: 463

Effect Of Innovativeness And Proactiveness On The Performance Of Micro-Enterprises In Nasarawa State
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description: Innovativeness and proactiveness are widely acknowledged as key drivers of business success, yet their influence on microenterprise performance in emerging markets such as Nasarawa State remains underexplored. This study examines the effect of these entrepreneurial orientations on the performance of microenterprises in Nasarawa State, Nigeria. Anchored on the Dynamic Capabilities Theory, the study adopted a survey research design. Primary data was collected from a representative sample of 403 micro-enterprise owners and managers through structured copies of questionnaire out of the target population of 7,905 registered micro-enterprises in Nasarawa State. In which a combination of purposive and convenience sampling techniques was employed. The data collected was analysed using PLS-SEM. The results indicate that innovativeness significantly enhances micro-enterprise performance by driving product and process improvements, while proactiveness contributes positively by strengthening market responsiveness and competitive positioning. Based on these findings, the study recommends that micro-enterprise owners, policymakers and development agencies in Nasarawa State should prioritize the development of innovative capabilities and proactive strategies to promote improved performance and long-term sustainability of firms.
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creator: IBRAHIM, Ahmed Abdullahi
creator: PAUL, Vincent
creator: AMOS, Magaji
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 ADSU International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Management
date: 2026-07-02
publication date: 2026-07-02
starting page: 464
ending page: 479

Moderating Effect Of Audit Committee Independence On The Relationship Between Audit Quality And Earnings Management Of Listed Non-Financial Firms In Nigeria
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description: The study addresses the persistent challenge of earnings management in Nigerian non-financial firms, emphasizing the need for robust governance to ensure reliable financial reporting. It investigates how audit quality, measured by audit firm size, audit fees, auditor industry specialization, and auditor tenure, affects earnings management, and examines the moderating role of audit committee independence (ACIND). The study adopts a longitudinal research design using secondary panel data from 50 listed nonfinancial firms in Nigeria over ten years (2015–2024), producing 500 firm-year observations. Earnings management was assessed via standardized abnormal cash flows from operations, abnormal production costs, and abnormal discretionary expenses per Roychowdhury (2006). Data were analyzed with a Random-Effects panel regression model. Results show that audit committee independence significantly and negatively moderates the effects of audit firm size, auditor tenure, and auditor industry specialization on earnings management, enhancing audit quality’s ability to restrain manipulative reporting, whereas its moderation of audit fees was not significant. The study recommends that firms reinforce audit committee independence, regulators enforce stronger governance standards, and auditors collaborate closely with independent committees to mitigate earnings management and improve financial reporting reliability. Keywords: Earnings Management, Audit Quality, Audit Firm Size, Audit Fees, Auditor Industry Specialization, Auditor Tenure, Audit Committee Independence, Nigeria
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creator: Naburgi Musa Mohammed
creator: Musa Hassan
creator: Hussaini Abubakar
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 ADSU International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Management
date: 2026-06-11
publication date: 2026-06-11

Investigating The Activities Of Phone Snatchers (Shila Boys) In Yola North Local Government: An Assessment Of Government Intervention
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description: Youths in any society are the engine of growth and development, because they provide the labour force for production of goods and services. They are also the critical segment of the population whose action and inaction can develop or destroy the hegemonies/fabrics of our society. This study is designed to investigate the activities of “Shila Boys” in Yola north local government area, Adamawa State, with a view to assessing government intervention. The activities of criminals, most especially “Shila boys “in Jimeta –the capital of Yola north local government includes phone snatching, stabbing causing injuries especially during night time, the groups also strike to some extent kill their victims using dangerous weapons like knife, machete, cutlass and even guns nowadays. The paper identify poverty, unemployment, drug abuse, lack of parental supervision and increased in drop-out and decadence in education are some of the factors responsible for the crime The effects further expose the inability of the government to effectively curb the activities of the group. The paper made used of primary source by means of interview and secondary source of data The paper conclude and recommend that in order to bring to drastically the activities of the menace, there is need for the government to key in educational sector by way of increased funding and ensuring that youths are educated. There is the need for employment opportunities and creation of skills and vocational centres for youths to be taught on various trades. There is also the need for community policing to enhance the intelligence gathering in reporting suspicious moves. Finally, there is also the need for proper prosecution of the offenders and their prosecutors to serve as deterrents to others. as they carry weapons to perpetrate their devilish act. The research is intended to identify the causes, the impact and the solution of crime especially that of Shila Boys. Five specific objectives will be used to guide the cond…
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creator: Mohammed Musa
creator: Felix Hasley
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 ADSU International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Management
date: 2026-06-11
publication date: 2026-06-11
starting page: 426
ending page: 437

Impact Of Oil Rents On Non-Resource Tax Revenue: The Moderating Role Of Economic Institutions In Selected Ecowas Member Countries
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description: This study examines the impact of oil rents on non-resource tax revenue in selected ECOWAS countries (Nigeria, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, Benin, and Niger) over the period 1990–2024, with emphasis on the moderating role of economic institutional quality. Using panel data and applying Panel-Corrected Standard Errors (PCSE) alongside Dynamic Common Correlated Effects (DCCE) for robustness, the findings reveal that oil rents exert a negative and significant effect on non-resource tax revenue, confirming the presence of a fiscal resource curse in the region. Institutional quality, however, shows a positive effect on tax revenue. The interaction term between oil rents and institutional quality is positive and significant in the PCSE model but becomes insignificant under the DCCE robustness check, indicating that the moderating role of institutions is not entirely robust when crosssectional dependence and dynamic effects are considered. The results further indicate that weak institutional frameworks contribute to low domestic revenue mobilization, while stronger institutions enhance tax performance. The study concludes that improving governance, transparency, and accountability is critical for ensuring that oil revenues complement rather than substitute non-resource tax efforts. Policy recommendations emphasize strengthening institutional capacity, diversifying economic activities, and promoting fiscal stability for sustainable revenue generation in ECOWAS countries.
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creator: Adamu Jibir
creator: Umeneanya Chinelo Bridget
creator: Musa Abdu
creator: Haruna Usman Modibbo
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 ADSU International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Management
date: 2026-06-11
publication date: 2026-06-11
starting page: 406
ending page: 425

Globalization And The Challenges Of Economic Diplomacy In Africa
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description: In recent times, globalization has become a defining feature of the contemporary international system, significantly influencing economic relations among nations through increased trade, investment flows, technological advancement, and international cooperation. However, despite the opportunities associated with globalization, African countries continue to encounter considerable challenges in utilizing economic diplomacy as an effective instrument for achieving sustainable economic development. This study examined globalization and the challenges of economic diplomacy in Africa. The study was anchored on theoretical underpinning of Dependency Theory. A qualitative research design was adopted and the data generated from secondary sources were analyzed using qualitative content analysis. The findings revealed that although globalization has enhanced Africa’s integration into the global economy through increased trade, foreign direct investment, technological exchanges, and regional economic cooperation, the continent continues to face numerous constraints. These include excessive dependence on primary commodity exports, weak institutional and governance structures, inadequate infrastructure, technological deficiencies, policy inconsistencies, and limited bargaining power in international economic negotiations. The study further found that these structural and institutional challenges have undermined the effectiveness of economic diplomacy and constrained Africa’s ability to derive substantial developmental benefits from globalization. The study concludes that while globalization presents significant opportunities for economic transformation, its benefits cannot be fully realized without deliberate efforts to strengthen domestic institutions, promote economic diversification, improve technological capacity, and enhance regional cooperation. The study recommends strengthening regional economic integration frameworks, investing in human capital and technological developm…
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creator: Markus Yohanna Kamale
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 ADSU International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Management
date: 2026-06-11
publication date: 2026-06-11
starting page: 389
ending page: 405

Trade Openness, Foreign Direct Investment And Economic Growth In United Kingdom (UK): A Time Series Analysis Approach
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description: This study investigates the impact of international trade and foreign direct investment on economic growth in the United Kingdom using updated time-series data from (1990-2025) and current economic realities. Specifically, the study investigates whether trade openness and FDI continue to exert significant positive effects on economic growth amidst Brexit adjustments, global supply chain disruptions, geopolitical uncertainty, inflationary pressures, and structural economic transformation. The findings of the study indicate that international trade represented by export plays a more substantial role in driving economic growth in the United Kingdom than Foreign Direct Investment. Export activities significantly enhance economic growth through increased productivity, market expansion, innovation, and foreign exchange generation. Although FDI was found to be statistically insignificant, policymakers should concentrate on attracting high quality and productivity enhancing investments rather than merely increasing the quantity of inflows. Priority should be given to investments capable of generating technological spill overs, employment opportunities, human capital development, and industrial diversification.
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creator: Shekwoduza Sarah Agara
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 ADSU International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Management
date: 2026-05-19
publication date: 2026-05-19
starting page: 358
ending page: 371

Oil Price, Exchange Rate Volatility, And Inflation Dynamics In Nigeria: An ARCH/GARCH Modelling Approach
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description: This study investigates the volatility dynamics of inflation in Nigeria within the situation of oil price shocks, exchange rate fluctuations, money supply, interest rate, and trade openness over the period 1986- 2025. Employing the Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and Generalized ARCH (GARCH) modelling framework, the study estimates the mean equation of inflation using a log-linear specification and models the conditional variance of the residuals to capture time-varying volatility. Preliminary diagnostics confirm ARCH effects in the inflation residuals (ARCH-LM test, p < 0.05). The GARCH(1,1) model, selected on the basis of the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC = 62.83), reveals a high volatility persistence (α + β = 0.957), implying that inflationary shocks decay slowly with an estimated half-life of approximately 15.8 years. Interest rate is found to exert a statistically significant positive effect on inflation (p < 0.01), while oil price and exchange rate exhibit negative but statistically insignificant direct effects in the conditional mean equation. Granger causality results confirm unidirectional causality from interest rate to inflation. The conditional volatility peaks coincide with Nigeria's structural adjustment programmes (1987-1993), the oil price crash (1998-1999), and the post-COVID devaluation episode (2023-2025). These findings carry important macroeconomic policy implications for the Central Bank of Nigeria regarding monetary transmission and exchange rate management.
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creator: Shekwoduza Sarah Agara
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 ADSU International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Management
date: 2026-05-19
publication date: 2026-05-19
starting page: 328
ending page: 346

Monetary Policy And Income Inequality In Nigeria: New Insights From ARDL Modelling
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description: This study examines the effect of monetary policy on income inequality in Nigeria from 1986 to 2021 using annual time-series data from the World Bank World Development Indicators. Income inequality is proxied by the Gini index, while monetary policy is captured through exchange rate, real interest rate, and inflation rate, with GDP per capita and unemployment included as control variables. The study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, supported by Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root tests and Granger causality analysis. The unit root results show a mixed order of integration, I(0) and I(1), validating the ARDL framework. The bounds test confirms a long-run relationship among the variables. The long-run estimates indicate that exchange rate and GDP per capita have negative and statistically significant effects on income inequality, whereas inflation, real interest rate, and unemployment are statistically insignificant. In the short run, exchange rate and GDP per capita remain significant, while the error correction term is negative and significant, showing that about 22.4 per cent of disequilibrium is corrected annually. The Granger causality results reveal unidirectional causality from exchange rate to income inequality and from income inequality to GDP per capita. The findings identify exchange rate dynamics as the dominant monetary policy channel associated with income inequality in Nigeria. The study recommends more coherent exchange rate management, stronger domestic productive capacity, and better coordination between monetary, fiscal, and industrial policies to reduce the distributional effects of macroeconomic instability.
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creator: Yaji Williams Nyijime
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 ADSU International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Management
date: 2026-05-19
publication date: 2026-05-19
starting page: 311
ending page: 327

Impact Of Household Consumption Expenditure On Private Investment In Nigeria
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description: This study examined the impact of household consumption expenditure on private investment in Nigeria over the period 1990 to 2024. Specifically, the study investigated the effects of household expenditure on housing and household expenditure on electricity on private investment, while interest rate was included as a control variable. The study was motivated by the persistent decline and instability in private investment despite rising household consumption expenditure in Nigeria. Annual timeseries data were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, World Development Indicators, and National Bureau of Statistics. The study adopted the Error Correction Model (ECM) estimation technique following the confirmation of mixed integration orders among the variables through the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test and the existence of long-run relationship using the ARDL Bounds test approach. The empirical findings revealed that household electricity expenditure exerts a negative effect on private investment in Nigeria. Specifically, the lagged electricity expenditure variable was found to be statistically significant and negatively related to private investment, implying that rising electricity costs crowd out productive investment activities. The result further showed that previous private investment positively influences current investment performance, indicating investment persistence over time. The error correction term was negative and statistically significant, confirming the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables and indicating that approximately 9.1% of short-run disequilibrium is corrected annually. The study concludes that excessive household expenditure on essential utilities, particularly electricity, weakens investment capacity in Nigeria. The study therefore recommends improved electricity infrastructure, affordable housing policies, and investment-friendly macroeconomic policies to stimulate sustainable …
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creator: Joan Nwadiuto Enenmoh
creator: Dominic Aondover Iortyer
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 ADSU International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Management
date: 2026-05-19
publication date: 2026-05-19
starting page: 293
ending page: 310

Impact Of Government Expenditure On Economic Growth In Nigeria
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description: This paper examines the impact of government expenditure on economic growth in Nigeria from 1988 to 2023 using annual timeseries data from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin. Government expenditure is disaggregated into recurrent expenditure, capital expenditure, and transfer payments, while economic growth is proxied by gross domestic product. The empirical strategy employs Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root tests, Johansen cointegration analysis, Granger causality tests, and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares estimation. The unit root results show that the variables are stationary after differencing, with transfer payments stationary at level, while the Johansen test confirms a long-run relationship among the variables. The DOLS estimates indicate that recurrent expenditure has a positive and statistically significant effect on economic growth, whereas capital expenditure has a positive but statistically insignificant effect. Transfer payments exert a negative and statistically insignificant effect on growth. The causality results reveal unidirectional causality from recurrent expenditure to GDP and bidirectional causality between transfer payments and GDP, while no causal relationship is found between capital expenditure and GDP. These findings suggest that the growth effect of government spending in Nigeria depends not merely on the size of expenditure but on its composition, efficiency, and implementation quality. The paper recommends improved expenditure efficiency, stronger monitoring of capital projects, rationalization of transfer payments, and better alignment of public spending with productivity-enhancing sectors.
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creator: Garba Dauda
creator: Umar Sharafadeen Elegu
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 ADSU International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Management
date: 2026-05-19
publication date: 2026-05-19

Effect Of Fadama's Agricultural Credit And Farm Inputs Provision On Poverty Reduction Of Beneficiary Households In Benue State
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description: The study examined the effect of Fadama agricultural credit and farm input provision on poverty reduction of beneficiary households in Benue state Nigeria. The study employed a cross-sectional survey research design, thereby thereby making the questionnaire the main instrument of data collection to explore the relationship between the variables. Multi-stage and stratified random sampling were used to select 400 Fadama user group members in Benue State. The study employed the Probit Regression to achieve the study’s objectives. From the data analysis, the study revealed that Fadama credit to household programmes have a significant negative effect on household income. The study further discovered that Fadamainformation and communication technology programme has an insignificant positive effect on household income. The study recommends that Governments should increase support for rural agriculture and make sure farmers receive subsidized farm inputs on schedule. Additionally, In order to promote the efficient use of digital agricultural technology for long-term poverty alleviation and sustainable rural development, it is also necessary to upgrade rural ICT infrastructure and give farmers sufficient training.
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creator: Daniel Agbese Ochapa
creator: Ilemona Adofu
creator: Walter Ugwuoke Okwudili
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 ADSU International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Management
date: 2026-05-19
publication date: 2026-05-19
starting page: 372
ending page: 388

Enhancing Employee Performance Through Continuing Education And Workshops In Adamawa State Civil Service Commission, Yola
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description: This study examined continuing education and workshops as determinants of employee performance in the Adamawa State Civil Service Commission, Yola. The study was motivated by persistent concerns over low productivity, poor service delivery, and inadequate capacity development among civil servants. The main objective was to assess the extent to which continuing education (in-service training) and workshops influence employee performance in the Commission. The study adopted a survey research design using both quantitative and qualitative approaches. Data were collected through structured questionnaires and key informant interviews from a population of 334 staff members, out of which 276 responses were retrieved and analyzed using descriptive statistics. Findings from the study revealed that continuing education significantly enhances employee performance by improving job-related skills, problem-solving abilities, job satisfaction, innovation, and adaptability to organizational change. Similarly, workshops were found to positively influence employee performance by improving knowledge acquisition, practical skills, motivation, leadership development, and overall service delivery effectiveness. The study established that both continuing education and workshops are critical human resource development strategies that contribute to improved efficiency and productivity in the civil service. The study concludes that continuous investment in employee training and development is essential for strengthening institutional performance in the public sector. It recommends that the Civil Service Commission should expand opportunities for continuing education through sponsorship and study leave, while ensuring that workshops are regularly organized, job-relevant, and practically oriented to address workplace challenges.
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creator: Abubakar Adamu
creator: Adagba Sunday Onah
creator: Cletus Monday Oyidi
rights: Copyright (c) 2026 ADSU International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Management
date: 2026-05-19
publication date: 2026-05-19
starting page: 369
ending page: 381

Under-Five Mortality And Economic Performance In Selected Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence From A Panel Data Analysis
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description: This study examines the impact of under-five mortality on economic performance in Sub-Saharan Africa, with the main objective of determining whether child mortality significantly influences GDP per capita within a dynamic macroeconomic framework. The study utilises secondary data obtained from the World Development Indicators (WDI), covering a panel of selected Sub-Saharan African countries over a specified period. To achieve robust and reliable results, the study employs panel data estimation techniques, including fixed effects and random effects models, supported by diagnostic tests such as the Hausman test, heteroskedasticity test, and autocorrelation test. In addition, a dynamic panel estimation using the System Generalised Method of Moments (System-GMM) is applied to address potential endogeneity and capture dynamic relationships among the variables. The findings reveal that under-five mortality has a negative but statistically insignificant effect on economic performance, indicating that its direct impact on GDP per capita is weak in the short run. In contrast, literacy rate and labour force are found to have positive and statistically significant effects, highlighting the critical role of human capital and labour participation in driving economic growth. Government health expenditure and gross fixed capital formation, although positively related to economic performance, do not exhibit consistent statistical significance. Based on these findings, the study recommends that policymakers prioritise investment in education and human capital development, as these factors have a direct and significant influence on economic performance while also indirectly contributing to improved child survival outcomes.
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creator: Dogara Micah
creator: Aisha Liman
rights: Copyright (c) 2026
date: 2026-05-14
publication date: 2026-05-14
starting page: 282
ending page: 299

Moderating Effect Of Institutional Quality On The Relationship Between Foreign Direct Investment, Trade Openness, Economic Growth And Development In West Africa
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description: This study examined the moderating effect of institutional quality in the relationship among FDI, trade openness, economic growth, and economic development in West Africa. Using an ex post facto research design, the study employed a convenience sampling technique to select 14 out of 15 countries in the region, based on data availability. The study was theoretically anchored on the endogenous growth theory, as well as the FDI-led and trade-led growth hypotheses, which guided both variable selection and model specification. Data were sourced from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators (WDI), the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) databases. For model estimation, the study utilized the panel Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) technique, which is robust to cross-sectional dependence, heteroskedasticity, and serial correlation. The results reveal that increases in both FDI and trade openness significantly stimulate economic growth in West African countries, with higher institutional quality amplifying these effects. Similarly, both FDI and trade openness were found to positively influence economic development, and sound institutional quality enhances these developmental impacts. The study further established that institutional quality exerts a direct and positive effect on both economic growth and economic development in the sampled countries. In light of these findings, the study recommends that West African countries sustain and, where necessary, deepen trade and capital account liberalization policies to facilitate greater trade and FDI flows. Also, the policymakers in the region should prioritize comprehensive institutional reforms.
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creator: Salisu Zubairu
creator: Aisha Liman
rights: Copyright (c) 2026
date: 2026-05-14
publication date: 2026-05-14
starting page: 262
ending page: 279

Linear And Non-Linear Impact Of Interest Rate On Sustainable Energy Consumption In Nigeria
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description: This study examined the impact of interest rate on renewable energy consumption in Nigeria from 1991–2021. The data for this study were obtained from World Bank Development Indicators, the Central Bank Statistical Bulletin, and the World Carbon Budget. The study employed Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model. Wald test result shows that an asymmetric relationship exists between the interest rate and renewable energy consumption in the long run. The empirical results reveal that interest rate exerts a negative and statistically significant impact on renewable energy consumption in both the short run and long run, implying that higher borrowing costs reduce investment in renewable energy technologies. The NARDL results further shows that increases in interest rate have a stronger negative impact on renewable energy consumption than equivalent decreases. Also, the long run result revealed that positive and negative changes are significant. It was observed that the impact of positive and negative change s were all negative as shown in their respective coefficients of -0.465768 and -0.410854, respectively. The study concludes that Nigeria’s transition towards sustainable energy is strongly influenced by the cost of capital associated with renewable energy investment. It therefore recommends that monetary authorities adopt interest-rate-supportive policies such as green-lending windows, subsidised credit, tax incentives, and renewable-energy financing schemes to enhance accessibility and accelerate clean-energy adoption. Strengthening renewable-energy financing frameworks will not only improve investment viability but also support national growth, energy security, and emission reduction commitments.
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creator: Ibrahim Abubakar
creator: Shehu El-Rasheed
creator: Hassan Abdulwahab Yusuf
rights: Copyright (c) 2026
date: 2026-05-14
publication date: 2026-05-14
starting page: 249
ending page: 262

Economic Growth And Environmental Sustainability In Africa
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description: The paper examined the impact of economic growth and environmental sustainability in Africa. The study used secondary annual panel data which span the period 2000 to 2024, the panel data was analyzed with the aid of panel autoregressive distributed lag (P/ARDL) or the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator. The variables employed in the study are environmental performance index (EPI) which is the dependent variable, while gross domestic product per capita (GDPPL), population (POPL), degree of trade openness (DTO), institutional quality index (IQI), labour (L), and capital (K), all serve as the independent variables. The outcome of the findings, revealed that in the long run GDPPL was found to have a positive impact on EPI with a coefficient of 0.0007 and in the short run it exhibited an inverse relationship on EPI, although in both period it was found to be insignificant to EPI, with a pvalue of 0.499 and 0.454 respectively. Whereas, in the long run POPL, TDO and K demonstrated a positive impact on EPI, and are all found to be statistically significant. While IQI, and L were found to have a negative impact on EPI in the long run. While in the short run TDO, and IQI exhibited a negative impact and were found to be statistically insignificant to EPI. Furthermore, POPL, L, and K were all having a positive and insignificant effect on EPI in the short run. The paper further put forth the recommendation that government in Africa should prioritize renewable energy adoption and target urban planning, energy efficiency, and governance reforms to amplify long-run benefit while curbing emissions.
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creator: Jummai Sabo Ogumka
creator: Freeman Aye-Agele
creator: Salami Abdulganiyu
rights: Copyright (c) 2026
date: 2026-05-14
publication date: 2026-05-14
starting page: 230
ending page: 248

A Sectorial Analysis Of Tax Revenue And Economic Growth In Nigeria
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description: This study examined the impact of tax revenue on economic growth in Nigeria, a sectorial analysis using time series data for the period of 1987 to 2022. The study specifically sought to; evaluate the effect of agricultural sector tax revenue on economic growth in Nigeria, ascertain the effect of manufacturing sector tax revenue on economic growth in Nigeria, determine the effect of services sector tax revenue on economic growth in Nigeria, and examined the effect of oil sector tax revenue on economic growth in Nigeria. The study utilized Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) as its estimation technique. It was revealed that Agricultural sector, manufacturing sector, services sector and oil sector led to increases in economic growth in Nigeria economy within the period under review. The study recommended that the government should increases mobilization of tax revenue across the sectors and subsidize agricultural inputs towards achieving the desired economic growth in the Nigeria Economy.
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creator: Mohammed Ishaka Gani
creator: ILemona Adofu
creator: Obadiah Jonathan Gimba
rights: Copyright (c) 2026
date: 2026-05-14
publication date: 2026-05-14
starting page: 280
ending page: 292

Impact Of Indirect Tax On The Nigerian Economic Growth
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description: This study investigates the impact of indirect taxes, Value Added Tax (VAT), Customs and Excise Duties (CED), and Petroleum Profit Tax (PPT) on Nigeria’s economic growth over the period 1994 to 2024. Employing secondary time-series data and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling approach, the study examines both short-run and long-run dynamics, as well as causal relationships between these taxes and real GDP. The findings reveal that VAT has a significant positive effect on economic growth, both in the short and long run, highlighting its role as a growth enhancing fiscal instrument. In contrast, CED exhibits mixed effects, with short-run significance but an insignificant long-run impact, while PPT shows a small but significant negative effect on long-run growth. Granger causality tests indicate unidirectional influence from VAT to GDP and reverse causality from GDP to CED, whereas PPT demonstrates no predictive causality. Despite limitations related to data constraints, exclusion of other tax instruments, and the linear modeling assumption, the study contributes to knowledge by providing robust empirical evidence on the differential effects of indirect taxes and offering insights for policy formulation aimed at enhancing sustainable economic growth in Nigeria. The study recommends strengthening Value Added Tax administration through improved compliance, digital monitoring, and base broadening to sustain its growth-enhancing role, reforming Petroleum Profit Tax to reduce distortive effects on investment in the oil sector, and improving the efficiency of Customs and Excise Duties. These measures would enhance revenue mobilization, improve fiscal sustainability, and support inclusive and long-term economic growth in Nigeria.
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creator: Muhammad Salihu Salihu
creator: Peter Chika Uzomba
rights: Copyright (c) 2026
date: 2026-05-12
publication date: 2026-05-12
starting page: 157
ending page: 175

Interaction Effects Of Monetary And Exchange Rate Policies On Oil And Non-Oil Trade Balance In Nigeria
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description: Motivated by persistent imbalances in Nigeria’s external sector, this study examined the interaction effects of monetary and exchange rate policies on oil and non-oil trade balance. The study assessed how these policy instruments jointly influence Nigeria’s trade balance components across sectors using time series data from 1981–2023. The study employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to estimate both the short- and long-run relationships, including the interaction effects. The findings revealed that, in the short run, monetary policy rate and interest rate significantly influenced capital and consumer goods trade balance but had no significant effect on oil and non-oil trade balance. In contrast, the real exchange rate significantly affected all trade balance components. In the long run, monetary policy rate, interest rate, and real exchange rate significantly determined trade balance across all the sectors. Furthermore, monetary policy significantly moderates exchange rate effects in non-oil trade, but not in oil trade, while fiscal policy and institutional quality showed no significant moderating influence. Hence, we conclude that coordinated monetary and exchange rate policies are critical for improving trade balance outcomes. Based on the findings, the study recommends maintaining single-digit lending interest rates to enhance access to trade finance and stimulate non-oil export performance. The study also recommends that the Central Bank of Nigeria implement monetary policy easing to lower interest rates and facilitate credit access for businesses, thereby enhancing competitiveness and affecting exchange rates. Keywords: , , ,
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creator: Asidok Nsikhe Okon
creator: Onyebuchi Kenneth Obi
creator: Amaka G. Metu
rights: Copyright (c) 2026
date: 2026-05-10
publication date: 2026-05-10
starting page: 1
ending page: 21

Manufacturing Sector Output And Economic Performance In West Africa: Panel Analysis
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description: This study examines the impact of manufacturing sector output on economic performance in West Africa using both theoretical and econometric approaches. Economic performance is treated as the dependent variable, while manufacturing sector output serves as the key independent variable, alongside other macroeconomic controls. The analysis covers the period 1990–2023 and employs second generation econometric techniques to account for cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity across countries. Preliminary analyses include cross-sectional dependence (CD) tests and panel unit root tests based on the Cross-Sectionally Augmented Dickey-Fuller (CADF) approach. The results reveal the presence of cross-sectional dependence and a mixed order of integration among variables, justifying the use of the Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The Westerlund error-correction-based cointegration test confirms the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship among manufacturing output, economic growth, capital formation, inflation, and exchange rate. The Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator is employed to estimate both short-run and long-run dynamics. The findings indicate that manufacturing output has a positive and statistically significant effect on economic performance in both the short and long run. The error correction term is negative and significant, suggesting a stable adjustment toward long-run equilibrium. However, the results also indicate that manufacturing growth has not sufficiently translated into employment generation, pointing to jobless growth in the region. The study recommends strengthening industrial policies, improving infrastructure, enhancing access to finance, and promoting value addition and export-oriented manufacturing to achieve sustainable and inclusive growth. Keywords: , , , ,
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creator: Kaltum Mustapha
creator: Ugwuoke Okwudili Walter
creator: Innocent Okwanya
rights: Copyright (c) 2026
date: 2026-05-07
publication date: 2026-05-07
starting page: 230
ending page: 247

Health Expenditure And Maternal Mortality Rate In Sub-Sahara Africa
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description: This study investigates the impact of health expenditure on maternal mortality rate in 12 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries over the period 1990–2024 using balanced panel data obtained from the World Development Indicators (WDI, 2024). Maternal mortality rate serves as the dependent variable, while recurrent health expenditure, capital health expenditure, private health expenditure, urban population, and basic sanitation are included as explanatory variables. The study adopts the model specification of Boachie, Ramu, and Põlajeva (2018) and applies advanced panel econometric techniques, including descriptive statistics, Pesaran cross-sectional dependence test, CrossSectionally Augmented Im-Pesaran-Shin (CIPS) unit root test, Westerlund panel cointegration test, and the Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (P-ARDL) model to estimate both short-run and longrun relationships. The findings confirm the presence of cross-sectional dependence and a mixed order of integration among the variables, justifying the use of second-generation panel methods. The cointegration results indicate a long-run equilibrium relationship between health expenditure and maternal mortality. Empirical estimates show that recurrent and capital health expenditures have negative but statistically insignificant effects on maternal mortality, suggesting inefficiencies in public health spending and weak implementation mechanisms. In contrast, private health expenditure and basic sanitation exhibit negative and statistically significant impacts, indicating that increased private healthcare spending and improved sanitation significantly reduce maternal deaths. Urban population shows a negative but insignificant relationship with maternal mortality. The study concludes that strengthening private sector participation, improving accountability in public health spending, and expanding access to basic sanitation are essential for achieving sustainable reductions in maternal mortality across SubSaharan Afri…
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creator: Yusuf Sadiq Abubakar
creator: Ilemona Adofu
creator: Joseph Paul
rights: Copyright (c) 2026
date: 2026-05-07
publication date: 2026-05-07
starting page: 267
ending page: 281

Economic Dimensions Of Post-Harvest Losses And Household Food Security Among Cowpea Farmers: Evidence From Taraba State, Nigeria
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description: This study examines the economic dimensions of post-harvest losses and household food security among cowpea farmers in Taraba State, Nigeria. Using a cross-sectional survey of 384 farm households and employing Structural Equation Modeling (SEM), the study explores the causal linkages between post-harvest losses and food security. Results indicate that 21.1% of total cowpea output was lost post-harvest, with storage losses accounting for 76.3% of total losses. SEM results reveal that post-harvest losses significantly increased food insecurity (β = 0.782, p < 0.001), while household income had a mitigating effect (β = 0.392, p < 0.001). The study concludes that economic vulnerability induced by postharvest inefficiencies undermines household food security and welfare. Policy recommendations cowpea farmers should priorities the use of Purdue Improved Cowpea Storage (PICS) while government or NGO-led subsidy programs should be implemented to make PICS or super grain bags affordable for smallholder farmers, as these are highly effective against bruchids without chemicals. Government should support local manufacturing and distribution networks for steel drums and metallic silos, which are highly effective alternatives to traditional, less secure storage methods. Government should integrate cowpea post-harvest loss reduction directly into national agricultural and food security strategies by formalizing targets in agricultural policies to aligned with national food security and international goals
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creator: Dennis Terpase Nomor
creator: Philip Terhemen Abachi
creator: Stephen Aondowase Nev
rights: Copyright (c) 2026
date: 2026-05-07
publication date: 2026-05-07
starting page: 248
ending page: 266

Digitalising Local Government Procurement Units: Panacea For Effective Public Finance Management
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description: The procurement units are the central organs that ensure due process of both capital and petty expenditures are adhered to, in order to ensure efficiency, economy, accountability and transparency. But among key issues that have beclouded the unit particularly at the local level is that its process is yet to be digitalized to meet best practice. Thus, this study seeks to explore the need for digitalizing local government procurement units of Adamawa State for effective public finance management. To document the study, qualitative method particularly, the survey method was used where data was collected through questionnaires and personal interview. A multi-stage sampling procedure was applied to select a sample of 126 respondents which cut across the entire ecosystem of procurement units and finance officers in Adamawa state. Descriptive and inferential (Logit regression) statistics were used to analysed the data. The study found that digitalization of the units can reduce corruption, embezzlement of public fund, increase competitiveness among bidders, effective quality service delivery and public resources accountability. The study recommend that staff training on digitalization is required, deployment of digital facilities in the entire local governments procurement units, digital transformation of the procurement processes and units is paramount for effective public financial management.
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creator: Amos Caleb
creator: Ibrahim Mohammed Lawal
creator: Dahiru Hassan Balami
creator: Naphtali Watramarhyel John
rights: Copyright (c) 2026
date: 2026-05-07
publication date: 2026-05-07
starting page: 211
ending page: 299

Assessment Of The Effect Of Economic Growth On Environmental Pollution In West Africa
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description: This study investigates the effect of economic growth on environmental degradation in West Africa, assessing the applicability of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. Using annual panel data from 16 West African nations (1996–2022) and a panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach, the study explores both long- and short-term effects. The results support the EKC hypothesis, demonstrating that economic expansion initially worsens environmental pollution by 10.985% but subsequently reduces it by 0.564% after crossing a specific income threshold. Additionally, the informal sector exacerbates the ecological damage linked to formal economic operations, whereas renewable energy adoption substantially mitigates pollution levels. Conversely, urbanization drives environmental degradation due to heightened energy demand and industrial output, leading to increased CO₂ emissions. These findings highlight the importance of implementing sustainable policies that strengthen environmental governance, integrate informal economic activities, and expand renewable energy infrastructure. To achieve enduring development, West African leaders must harmonize economic advancement with ecological preservation, ensuring that growth strategies do not compromise environmental integrity.
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creator: Mansur Umar Bata
creator: Mustapha Muktar
creator: Bernard Ojonugwa Anthony
creator: Alfa Yakubu
creator: Egwaikhide Christian Imoudu
creator: Ishola Wasiu Oyeniran
rights: Copyright (c) 2026
date: 2026-05-07
publication date: 2026-05-07
starting page: 198
ending page: 210

Driving Economic Growth Through Macroeconomic Indicators: Evidence From Nigeria
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description: This study empirically examined macroeconomic indicators driving economic growth in Nigeria. The specific objectives of the study were, to examine the relationship between inflation, unemployment rate, exchange rate, interest rate, poverty rate, consumption, investment, government expenditure, and balance of payment and economic growth in Nigeria. The data used for the study is secondary annual time series data covering a period of 1980 to 2024 and were collected from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) annual statistical bulletin and National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The study employed Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The result revealed that inflation has a positive (99,919.158) insignificant (0.6970) relationship with economic growth in Nigeria, while interest rate has a positive (199,893.2) significant (0.0113) influence on economic growth in the long run in Nigeria. The result further showed that exchange rate has a negative (-34,967.28) insignificant (0.0906) impact on economic growth in Nigeria. The study also showed that unemployment rate is positively (686,032.6) significantly (0.0357) impact economic growth in the long run. The study further revealed that poverty rate has a positive (95,468.23) statistically significant (0.0404) long run impact on economic growth in Nigeria. More so the study found that consumption negatively (-909.545) insignificant (0.1577) impact economic growth in the long run. While Investment revealed a positive (81.12635) and insignificant (0.4658) impact on economic growth in the long run. The result on government expenditure revealed a negative (-869.8982) and insignificant (0.2589) impact on economic growth in Nigeria in the long run. Lastly, balance of payment has a positive (2.807797) statistically significant (0.0144) impact on economic growth in the long run. The study concludes that macroeconomic indicators have mixed impact on economic growth in Nigeria. The study therefore recommends that Nigeria economic grow…
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creator: ODOR Thomas Orukwu
creator: Joseph M. IBBIH
creator: Rifkatu NGHARGBU
rights: Copyright (c) 2026
date: 2026-05-07
publication date: 2026-05-07
starting page: 163
ending page: 197

Effects Of Basic Health Care Provision Fund Health Insurance On Healthcare Access And Utilization In Adamawa State: Evidence From Structural Equation And Thomas & Penchansky Models
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description: Nigeria's path to Universal Health Coverage is hindered by law access, financial and systemic challenges, notably impacting vulnerable populations. Basic Health Care Provision Fund (BHCPF) health insurance, a safety-net intervention in Nigeria, aims to enhance access to and utilisation of healthcare services for the vulnerable. This study examines the influence of the BHCPF health insurance on healthcare access and utilisation, among the vulnerable in Adamawa State. Data were collected from 793 BHCPF health insurance beneficiaries via a cross-sectional survey in Adamawa State between January and June 2025. A multistage sampling approach was used to determine the sample size. Structural Equation Modelling based on the Thomas Model for healthcare access was applied for the measurement of the structural relationships among the study latent variables. The variables are; BHCPF, healthcare access and utilisation (AccessUHC), frequency of healthcare facility visits (AUHC1), availability and ease of access to services (AUHC2) and coverage of health needs of the beneficiaries by the BHCPF (AUHC3). Model fit indices and standardised path coefficients were also conducted. The results indicate that the BHCPF health insurance significantly enhances healthcare access and utilisation for the vulnerable in Adamawa State. Thus; AUHC1- β =0.71 p-value 0.001, AUHC2- β= 0.64 p-value 0.000-AUHC3 β = 0.82 p-value0.000. This study emphasises the significance of BHCPF health insurance as a safety net in improving healthcare access for vulnerable populations. It recommends effective policies to enhance the implementation of BHCPF health insurance in Adamawa State and beyond, for optimising the intervention's impact on healthcare access and utilisation.
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creator: Hassan Adamu Mohammed
creator: Saifullah Ibrahim Sani
creator: Kekerewoo Isaac Oluwafemi
creator: Bilyaminu Mohammed
rights: Copyright (c) 2026
date: 2026-04-27
publication date: 2026-04-27
starting page: 190
ending page: 207

Estimating The Time-Variant Co-Movement Of Exchange Rate Volatility And Consumer Price Returns In Nigeria
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description: This study examined the dynamic co-movement between the exchange rate volatility and consumer price returns (inflation) in Nigeria. The study adopted DCC-GARCH approach to observe if there exist variations in the correlation between the two variables over different periods using a monthly time series data spanning the period of 2009M1 - 2024M12. The results indicate that the constant mean in the conditional mean equation of exchange rate returns is statistically insignificant. Likewise, the constant of conditional variance equation of CPI returns. However, the parameters in both the mean and the variance equations of the two variables are statistically significant at least at 10 percent level, including the ARCH and the GARCH terms in the two equations. Equally, the sums of α+β in both conditional variance equations are almost 1.2 indicating a somewhat low persistence in the conditional variances. For the dynamic correlation, its mean-value is estimated to be around 0.105 which shows an unconditional positive, although weak, correlation between returns on exchange rate and inflation in Nigeria over the study period. However, the result of parameter constancy test (chi-square statistic) indicates strong evidence against the hypothesis of a constant conditional coefficient. The result shows that Rt is different from R at 1 percent level. Thus, we conclude that there is evidence of dynamism in the conditional correlation between the variables. Depicting the dynamism, we observed that periods of 2011M1, 2019M1 and 2020M8 recorded the lowest correlation (the lowest level of pass-through), while 2011M3 and 2012M6 witnessed a somewhat highest correlation between the two volatilities, until Retail DAS (RDAS) was re-implemented towards the end of July 2013. The paper therefore recommends auction of sufficient foreign exchange by the CBN and unification of exchange rates for adequate predictability of inflation rates by the monetary authority.
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creator: Muhammad Ibrahim Abdullahi
rights: Copyright (c) 2026
date: 2026-04-27
publication date: 2026-04-27
starting page: 113
ending page: 130