Relationship between Oil Price Variations and Key Macroeconomics Variables in Gabon

Abstract

Gabon, endowed with substantial oil reserves, is a key player in the global energy landscape. As an oil-dependent economy, Gabon's growth and stability are intricately linked to oil price dynamics. With a focus on the period from 1981 to 2022, this study explores the impact of oil price variations on key macroeconomic variables in Gabon. Leveraging the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the research scrutinizes the relationships between oil prices, real exchange rates, consumer prices, and GDP. The empirical results indicate a mixed-order of integration among variables, prompting the selection of the ARDL technique for analysis. Granger causality tests reveal independent causality between variables, except for CPI and RER, suggesting that alterations in one variable cannot predict changes in others. A notable bidirectional relationship is observed between CPI and RER, highlighting a mutual predictive influence between these variables. Diagnostic tests, including the Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey test and Ramsey's Regression Specification Error Test (RESET), confirm the robustness and reliability of the ARDL model. The study concludes that the combined influence of oil prices, real exchange rates, and consumer prices significantly contributes to variations in Gabon's GDP. The findings provide valuable insights for policymakers, emphasizing the need for nuanced economic planning considering both short-term and long-term implications.