Under-Five Mortality And Economic Performance In Selected Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence From A Panel Data Analysis

Abstract

This study examines the impact of under-five mortality on economic performance in Sub-Saharan Africa, with the main objective of determining whether child mortality significantly influences GDP per capita within a dynamic macroeconomic framework. The study utilises secondary data obtained from the World Development Indicators (WDI), covering a panel of selected Sub-Saharan African countries over a specified period. To achieve robust and reliable results, the study employs panel data estimation techniques, including fixed effects and random effects models, supported by diagnostic tests such as the Hausman test, heteroskedasticity test, and autocorrelation test. In addition, a dynamic panel estimation using the System Generalised Method of Moments (System-GMM) is applied to address potential endogeneity and capture dynamic relationships among the variables. The findings reveal that under-five mortality has a negative but statistically insignificant effect on economic performance, indicating that its direct impact on GDP per capita is weak in the short run. In contrast, literacy rate and labour force are found to have positive and statistically significant effects, highlighting the critical role of human capital and labour participation in driving economic growth. Government health expenditure and gross fixed capital formation, although positively related to economic performance, do not exhibit consistent statistical significance. Based on these findings, the study recommends that policymakers prioritise investment in education and human capital development, as these factors have a direct and significant influence on economic performance while also indirectly contributing to improved child survival outcomes.