ADSU International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Management

Assessing Monetary Policy Effectiveness Amid Climate Uncertainty: A Bayesian DSGE Framework

Abstract

This study is driven by the urgent need to evaluate and strengthen the effectiveness of monetary policy in maintaining price stability, particularly in the context of increasing climate-related uncertainties and recurrent economic disruptions in Nigeria. To achieve this, the study employs a Bayesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (BDSGE) framework, utilizing quarterly data from the first quarter of 2000 to the second quarter of 2024.Initial findings from the baseline model indicate that inflation exhibits a significant and positive response to adverse output or technology shocks, while showing a significant negative response to monetary policy interventions. However, when the model is extended to account for additional shocks specifically those arising from climate change, exchange rate volatility, and fluctuations in crude oil prices the inflationary impact of monetary and output shocks becomes even more pronounced. This heightened sensitivity suggests that climate-related uncertainty exacerbates the effects of economic shocks on inflation, thereby diminishing the overall effectiveness of traditional monetary policy tools. The findings highlight the critical need for monetary authorities to incorporate climate adaptation and mitigation considerations into the monetary policy framework. Doing so is essential to improving policy resilience and ensuring macroeconomic stability in the face of escalating environmental and economic challenges.