ADSU International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Management

Impact Of Population Growth On Economic Growth In Nigeria

Abstract

This study examines the intricate relationship between population growth and economic growth in the Nigerian context, leveraging a comprehensive dataset spanning the years 1961 to 2022 sourced from the World Bank Development Indicators. Guided by the lens of endogenous growth theory, the research employs a multidimensional analytical approach encompassing descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, unit root tests, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, and Error Correction Model (ECM) to unravel the complex dynamics between the variables. The findings indicate that Nigeria’s expanding population exerts significant implications for sustainable economic development. The population growth is associated with adverse effects on economic progress, contributing to trade imbalances, hindered economic growth, and intensified poverty levels. Additionally, the strain on the educational system has led to declining literacy rates and reduced productivity among the youthful workforce, subsequently hampering overall economic output. In the long-run impact assessment, the study unveils a robust negative relationship between population growth and economic growth, as well as a significant link between fertility rate and economic growth. The analysis employs the ARDL framework to accommodate the distinct orders of integration among the variables, allowing for a comprehensive exploration of both short-term and long-term relationships. The results affirm the need to address Nigeria’s escalating population growth as a pivotal step towards achieving sustained economic growth and development. The research contributes to the existing body of literature by offering empirical insights tailored to the Nigerian context, aligning with theoretical foundations, and providing policy recommendations to harness the potential of population dynamics for enhanced economic progress.