ADSU International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Management

Assessing The Determinants Of Tax Revenue In Nigeria

Abstract

In view of the role of tax revenue on economic growth and development, this study empirically examined the determinants of tax revenue in Nigeria for the period 1990-2022 using ARDL model as a tool for analysis. To ensure the robustness of results, the study accounts for structural breaks in the unit root
test and the co-integration analysis. The important findings of the study suggest that per capita income, exchange rate and interest rate are positive and insignificant both in the short run and long run. Trade openness is positive and insignificant in the short, while it is positively significant in the long run. Agricultural GDP is positively significant both in the long run and short run. However, inflation rate found to be significant in the short, while in the long run it’s found to be insignificant. The study therefore recommends that government should invest in programs and infrastructure that support agricultural productivity and value addition, which will increase the sector’s contribution to the overall tax revenues over the long run. Government should also implement policies that foster economic growth which in turn boost tax revenue. Also government should monitor inflationary pressures and adjust interest rates accordingly to support price stability which can indirectly support tax revenue by maintaining consumer purchasing power.