ADSU International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Management

Analysing the Effect of Carbonn Dioxide Emission on  Agricultural Output in Nigeria

Abstract

Over the years there is decrease in agricultural output in Nigeria and was as a result of global warming which was cause by carbon dioxide emission, this has affected food production, crop production and agricultural output respectively. This study investigates effect of carbon dioxide emission on agricultural output in Nigeria. The study adopted transposed second generation of environmental Kuznets curve model which defines growth (agricultural output) as a function of CO2 Emission. Secondary data were sourced from World Development World Indicator (WDI) 2024 from 1981 to 2023. The study employs auto regressive distributive lag (ARDL) bound test of cointegration and error correction model (ECM). The result shows that F-statistics having a value of 3.420965 in model 1which is greater than the values of the lower bound (2.39) and the upper bound (3.38) at 5% level of significance. Also in model 2, the coefficient of F-statistics is 6.253450 which is greater than the critical value of lower bound I(0) and upper bound I(1) of 3.38. Again model 3 having the coefficient of F-statistics 9.955424 that is greater than both the lower and the upper bound test at 5% level of significance. Therefore, the null hypothesis of no long run co-integration was rejected. The Durbin-Watson statistic of 1.636522, 1.711298, 2.033171 and 1.852129 indicates no autocorrelation in the residuals. The overall regression is significant at 1 percent as can be seen from the R-Squared and the F-statistic. R-Squared of 0.775638, 0.761528, 0.714938 and 0.956523 indicate about 77%, 76%, 71% and 95% of variation in endogenous variable AGRIC.GDP, FOOPROD, CROPPRO is explained by changes in exogenous variables. Also, an F-statistic value of suggests significance of the determinants in the ECM. The study recommended that Nigeria government needs to have a serious priority to agricultural sector. The current climate change effect can be minimized if policy toward mitigation is geared. Agricultural output can be increased and sustained by developing agricultural technologies that are environmentally sensitive through trade openness. Also agricultural innovation that increase soil nutrient and not contribute to change in climate change be encouraged.